Russia first broke its commitments under the Budapest Memorandum in 2014, with its annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine. Russia again broke the agreement on February 24. 2022 with their “special operation” which concisted a full invasion of Ukraine.
The agreement signed by the US in 1994 prohibits explicit economic coercion against Ukraine.
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) February 22, 2025
Ukraine should not give mineral rights to the U.S. for military aid.
The U.S. already agreed to provide military assistance to Ukraine to maintain the sovereignty of Ukraine’s 1991 borders under Annex II to the Budapest Memorandum. This was in exchange for Ukraine giving up the world’s third nuclear arsenal. Because the U.S. did not honor this agreement, Russia was able to illegally invade and occupy parts of Ukraine. So now Ukraine is going to give up mineral rights to the U.S. to get what it was already promised for giving up its nukes? What makes you think the U.S. will honor any agreement? Lastly, the U.S. profits from the war in Ukraine. There was a huge boost in foreign military sales by the U.S. since the full scale invasion that more than compensates for what the US has provided in military assistance to Ukraine.
The Conversation: In 2022 Putin’s decision to invade was in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum, a key instrument assuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The memorandum was struck in 1994, following lengthy and complicated negotiations involving the then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, US president Bill Clinton and the then British prime minister John Major.
Under the terms of the memorandum, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal – the world’s third-largest, inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union – and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for decommissioning. This enabled Ukraine to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear state.
The NPT is a legally-binding instrument that recognises only five countries as legitimate holders of nuclear weapons: China, France, Russia, the UK and the US. All other countries are banned from developing a nuclear arsenal and those that have, including India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, are not parties to the NPT.
In exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal, Ukraine initially sought legally binding guarantees from the US that it would intervene should Ukraine’s sovereignty be breached. But when it became clear that the US was not willing to go that far, Ukraine agreed to somewhat weaker – but nevertheless significant – politically binding security assurances to respect its independence and sovereignty which guaranteed its existing borders. China and France subsequently extended similar assurances to Ukraine, but did not sign the Budapest Memorandum.
The Budapest Memorandum consists of a series of political assurances whereby the signatory states commit to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”. But the meaning of the security assurances was deliberately left ambiguous. According to a former US diplomat who participated in the talks, Steven Pifer, it was understood that if there was a violation, there would be a response incumbent on the US and the UK. And while that response was not explicitly defined, Pifer notes that: “there is an obligation on the United States that flows from the Budapest Memorandum to provide assistance to Ukraine, and […] that would include lethal military assistance”.
The image of Ukraine being invaded by Russia despite its security assurances and being left largely to fend for itself in this conflict may trigger a resurgant interest in nuclear weapons. Some evidence of this has already begun to emerge, for instance in Japan, where the former prime minister Shinzo Abe argued that “Japan should break a longstanding taboo and hold an active debate on nuclear weapons – including a possible ‘nuclear-sharing’ programme.”
Over 10 million Ukrainians are still estimated to be displaced
At the end of 2024, there were an estimated 3.7 million internally displaced people in Ukraine, with a further 6.9 million Ukrainians seeking refuge and asylum outside the country. The number of people who are internally displaced has decreased by nearly 40% since the start of the war, with those seeking refuge elsewhere increasing by almost 19%.
Nearly 42.000 civilians have been killed or injured in Ukraine
More than 12.000 civilians have been killed and over 29.000 injured in the three years since Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine [the war has been going on since 2014].
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