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Have you noticed it? The World has passed Peak Car

UK car production down 14.2% YoY in 2019. Production globally leveled off in 2016 so this is not a Brexit story – (at least not the inflection point). However, the scale of the subsequent 3Y decline has been more acute in the UK compared to RoW. Light blue line is UK (RH axis) and dark blue is the production of the Rest of World (combined top 10 producers)

Some car manufacturers still believe there will be another peak around 2025 based on emerging markets in Asia. More likely consumers in these markets will take after their pers in the US and Europe. They may not even have a driver’s license and may also have adopted urban mobility solutions like Über and Lyft or electric scooters.

Worldwide, residents are migrating to megacities—expected to be home to two-thirds of the global population by midcentury—where an automobile can be an expensive inconvenience. Young people continue to turn away from cars, with only 26 percent of U.S. 16-year-olds earning a driver’s license in 2017, a rite of passage that almost half that cohort would have obtained just 36 years ago, according to Sivak Applied Research. Likewise, the annual number of 17-year-olds taking driving tests in the U.K. has fallen 28 percent in the past decade. This is what peak car look like, Bloomberg Businessweek

It could well be that we passed the peak in global automotive production.
Volkmar Denner, CEO Robert Bosch GmbH
The Worlds largest car part manufactorer

The industry change will have a “significant impact on employment,” Denner said. “We need 10 associates to manufacture a diesel injection system, three for a gasoline system, and one for an electric motor,”.

Bosch’s earnings before interest and tax almost halved to “about 3 billion euros” ($3.3 billion), according to preliminary figures for 2019. The profit margin eroded to “just under 4%” return on sales from 7% in the previous year.

‘Peak Car’ May Be Past, German CEO Says, Hyperdrive Bloomberg

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