Adam Simpson, University of South Australia
Poland’s presidential election runoff will be a bitter pill for pro-European Union democrats to swallow.
The nationalist, Trumpian historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly defeated the liberal, pro-European Union mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, by 50.89% to 49.11%.
The Polish president has limited executive powers, although the officeholder can veto legislation. This means the consequences of a Nawrocki victory will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe.
With this power, Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, will undoubtedly hinder the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform-led coalition to enact democratic political reforms.
This legislative gridlock could well see Law and Justice return to government in the 2027 general elections, which would solidify the anti-democratic changes the party implemented during its last term in office from 2015 to 2023. This included eroding Poland’s judicial independence by effectively taking control of judicial appointments and the Supreme Court.
Nawrocki’s win has given pro-Donald Trump, anti-liberal, anti-EU forces across the continent a shot in the arm. It’s bad news for the EU, Ukraine, and women.
For the past three decades, Poland has shown how much a country can achieve with good economic policy and European integration. But if it elects a hard-right president, it risks throwing it away https://t.co/YuU1hD2W65 pic.twitter.com/OYhwtFnWZr
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) May 22, 2025
A rising Poland
For much of the post-World War II era, Poland has had limited European influence.
This is no longer the case. Poland’s economy has experienced significant growth since it joined the European Union in 2004. It spends almost 5% of its gross domestic product on defence, almost double what it spent in 2022 at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Poland now has a bigger army than the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. And living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, are about to eclipse Japan’s.
Along with Brexit, these changes have resulted in the EU’s centre of gravity shifting eastwards towards Poland. As a rising military and economic power of 37 million people, what happens in Poland will help shape Europe’s future.
Impacts on Ukraine
Poland’s new position in Europe is most clearly demonstrated by its central role in the fight to defend Ukraine against Russia.
This centrality was clearly demonstrated during the recent “Coalition of the Willing” summit in Kyiv, where Tusk joined the leaders of Europe’s major powers – France, Germany, and the UK – to bolster support for Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
However, Poland’s unqualified support for Ukraine will now be at risk because Nawrocki has demonised Ukrainian refugees in his country and opposed Ukrainian integration into European-oriented bodies, such as the EU and NATO.
Nawrocki was also backed during his campaign by the Trump administration. Kristi Noem, the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, said at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland:
Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country.
Trump also hosted Nawrocki in the Oval Office when he was merely a candidate for office. This was a significant deviation from standard U.S. diplomatic protocol, which typically involves staying out of foreign elections.
Nawrocki has not been as pro-Russia as some other global, MAGA-style politicians, but this is largely due to Poland’s geography and its difficult history with Russia. It has been repeatedly invaded across its eastern plains by Russian or Soviet troops. And along with Ukraine, Poland shares borders with the Russian client state of Belarus and Russia itself in Kaliningrad, the heavily militarised enclave on the Baltic Sea.
I experienced the proximity of these borders during fieldwork in Poland in 2023 when I travelled by car from Warsaw to Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, via the Suwalki Gap.
This is the strategically important, 100-kilometre-long border between Poland and Lithuania, which connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO and the EU to the south. It’s seen as a potential flashpoint if Russia were ever to close the gap and isolate the Baltic states.
Poland’s conservative nationalist politicians are therefore less Russia-friendly than those in Hungary or Slovakia. Nawrocki, for instance, does not support cutting off weapons to Ukraine.
However, a Nawrocki presidency will still be more hostile to Ukraine and its interests. During the campaign, Nawrocki said Zelensky “treats Poland badly”, echoing the type of language used by Trump himself.
Poland divided
The high stakes in the election resulted in a record turnout of almost 73%.
There was a stark choice in the election between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski.
Trzaskowski supported the liberalisation of Poland’s harsh abortion laws – abortion was effectively banned in Poland under the Law and Justice government – and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples.
Nawrocki opposed these changes and will likely veto any attempt to implement them.
While the polls for the presidential runoff election had consistently shown a tight race, an Ipsos exit poll published during the vote count demonstrated the social divisions now facing the country.
As in other recent global elections, women and those with higher formal education voted for the progressive candidate (Trzaskowski), while men and those with less formal education voted for the conservative (Nawrocki).
Following the surprise success of the liberal, pro-EU presidential candidate in the Romanian elections a fortnight ago, pro-EU forces were also hoping for a similar result in Poland.
That, for now, is a pipe dream, and liberals across the continent will now need to negotiate a difficult relationship with a right-wing, Trumpian leader in the new beating heart of Europe.
Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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